The science of investing in sporting events has left many handicappers and
professional gamblers raking in the cash from their offshore sportsbook
accounts. I say investing because a sound handicapping approach supplemented
with good gambling money management skills virtually takes all of the
gambling out of sports betting. Sure, you are still placing bets and “gambling”,
but with the right tools behind you, year in and year out you can make money in
this field just like we do. Betting on sports is not a 50-yard dash sprint, but
a very long distance race and the sports better has to look at this way. There
will be many ups and downs along the way and this is why a proper money
management system must be in place before you take your first piece of the
action. Today, I hope to help you learn a few tips and tricks that will save you
money in the long run.
One may ask the question, If you can pick a greater percentage of
winners than losers, why do you need a money management plan? Well the
answer is simple. If you can pick more winners than losers, say 55%, but
do not have a money plan, you will lose. Plain and simple. Most betters
agree that a set unit price per play is that way to go. I am not going
to go into the Kelly Criterion in this article, because I believe that
if a capper has plays that he believes has a greater value than what the
oddsmaker posted, then it is up to him to make the decision to rate his
plays accordingly. This article is aimed for betters, who can pick the
right games yet still lose money, the beginning better, and the better
who uses a service to pick games and still loses money.
Lets take the NBA for this example and we will assume that we lay –110
on all sides and totals. Let us also assume that we can hit 55%, or we
use a service that picks 55% winners. Now lets take a look at what the
ideal should be. Say we have 438 bets, including sides and totals for
the year. That is 241 winners and 147 losing tickets. We played at a set
unit per play, a 5000-dollar bankroll at 2% per unit would be 100 per
bet. For this example I am going to use 110 to include the juice. This
equals 100 X 241 = $24,100 dollars won, minus 110 X 147 = $16,170. So
$24,100 – $16,170 = $7,930. This equates to approximately 79.3 units won
and quite a nice profit.
Now lets take a better that starts out using a money management system,
but then after a great winning streak, decides to vary his bets and
increase them. Say he starts out the season going 62-40@ 120 per play,
62 X 100 = 6200, minus 40 X 110 = 4000, $2200 up. So Mr.
No-Money-Management, No Discipline decides to get greedy and up his bets
to 5%, 250 per play, to capitalize on his exquisite handicapping skills
and really cash in. Now we all know the he is not going to stay hitting
61% for the entire season, so he hits a bad losing streak. Going 15-25
on his next 40 bets, even though for the season, 77-65 ( 54.22%), he is
still above the required win percentage to win money, 52.38%. But going
15-25 translates into the following: 15 X 227 = 3405, minus 25 X 250 =
6250, for a net of NEGATIVE 2,845, and going negative for the season. If
he would have kept his original unit price of 100 per play, he would
have won 1500 and lost 2750 on his bad run of 40 wagers, however, for
the season he would still be positive, not negative.
This is just one example of why, even though you can pick 55% winners,
you still must have your head in the right place regarding money
management. If not, a bad streak can wipe you out. In the last example,
the better wanted to increase his profits, he got greedy, he was looking
for a 50-yard dash, and look what ended up happening. Went broke and
fell out of the race. So he has to play the rest of the season not even
starting over, but starting negative, and chances are this type of
better will increase his unit price again, to get himself out of a hole,
when in fact he is just digging it much deeper. On paper, it is easy to
see and understand, but doing it in the real world is much different. In
all of my time spent in this industry, the number one thing I have
learned has got to be patience. It is a must. Without it you will
crumble. You have got to have the will to sit there throughout a losing
streak, understanding that you handicapping does not suck, and that
losing streaks happen to everyone. The point of 1 to 2 % unit of your
bankroll is so that when losing streaks happen, you will not blow your
whole bankroll. You need your unit to be small enough that you can go on
an extended losing streak, and not get wiped out.
Even picking winners is not going to make you money. For a lot of folks,
they believe that is all they have to do. I am sure every sports better
out there knows one, if not many of these types of people. I believe the
root of it is greed and lack of patience. Take a look again at my first
example, the guy who picked his 55%, and stayed with a solid money
program the whole way through. A profit of 7930 off of a 5000 bankroll.
That is a return of 158.6% on your money. Let me say that again, A
RETURN OF 158.6% ON YOUR MONEY. If that isn’t enough you for, then I
suggest you look into a different industry.
This article has been produced by Jimmy Boyd of Locksmith Sports. You can
find his sports picks on a
daily basis at LocksmithSportsPicks.com.
